Great card coming up with the Stokes stable set to have a big day. I'm predicting them to have four or five favourites and most of them have a stack of upside. To my eye it is going to be a long day for the bookies.
Suggested Bets:
R3 Quietly Discreet & Mileva (60/40 split)
Hot little race here. Pretty keen to play in this because I think the favourite Pimm's Party is massively under the odds at around $2.50. Quietly Discreet has a stack of talent and has jumped out and trialled well in her lead up to this. I did back her on debut and she burnt me with her bad manners but with some more experience under her belt she hopefully races tractably. If she doesn't, I'm of the thinking that Mileva will go very close. Happy to back them both at the $4.20 and $3.50 on offer, if I am right with my pricing of the favourite then I think the early price is worth taking.
R5 Trip EW (1x3)
The favourite Shojiki is the horse to beat but top of the market is $2.00 and I still think that's short enough for a filly going from a maiden to a BM58. I thought Trip was good last start when only run down late on the Gifford Hill circuit which has the longest straight in the state. I thought she would lead here and give some cheek. Happy to take the $7.50 and $2.00 on offer with a larger place bet.
Predictions:
- Expecting the track to be a Good 4, with only light winds that won't have any impact.
- The rail has been in the 3m position for the last two meetings and moves out to the 6m position from the 1000m here.
- Since July 2019 we've seen the rail move from the 3m position to either the 5m or 6m on six occasions.
- On 5 of those 6 occasions it's been very hard to circle from the back, the exception was during a very strong northerly wind.
- Verdict = Hard to loop, on pace advantage.
Drifters/Lays:
R2 One More Jack $4.60
If I was bookmaking on this card I'd be clear top odds about this gelding. Not convinced he's a 1000m horse and the recent trial would suggest he's better suited at 1200m. He's as short as $4.00 with some operators and I'd be surprised if you can't get $6.00 come jump time.
R3 Pimm's Party $2.70
Another horse I'd be desperate to lay at the current quote. On my ratings she can't be anywhere near the current price on offer. She was visually impressive on debut and she did it in the inferior part of the track, but this is a steep class rise. The two horses she beat in that maiden were comprehensively beaten in Gawler maidens on Wednesday which I'm sure will be reflected by the market late. I wouldn't be surprised if she jumps third pick. If you want to back her, wait.
R4 Kishtar $6.00
Has trialled relatively well in moderate heats but I think the market will be prepared to roll the dice with it. Assuming no scratchings, I think you'll get double-figures about her.